Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 14.628286 17.827039 21.397118 25.653657 30.566030 36.032670 42.550476
2025-04-13 8.986347 12.760816 17.481781 23.719166 31.632839 41.223260 53.596918
2025-04-20 6.759301 10.811182 16.335245 24.196388 34.848042 48.514220 67.071153
2025-04-27 5.378014 9.543086 15.654239 24.899090 38.100502 55.805578 80.798585
2025-05-04 4.443975 8.664092 15.273096 25.811816 41.538890 63.413824 95.276483
2025-05-11 3.657026 7.812256 14.736081 26.328939 44.333766 70.201473 108.928969
2025-05-18 2.924138 6.864543 13.855386 26.137034 45.960626 75.330082 120.444411
2025-05-25 2.250601 5.846206 12.659577 25.232985 46.325893 78.536501 129.266807
2025-06-01 1.800216 5.149247 11.896619 24.916769 47.521978 82.969763 140.018641
2025-06-08 1.362625 4.346840 10.781099 23.809608 47.265841 85.078967 147.305283
2025-06-15 1.177956 4.086305 10.684901 24.527328 50.110965 92.174001 162.490480
2025-06-22 0.913373 3.533211 9.875128 23.777583 50.309912 94.983997 171.084731
2025-06-29 0.798118 3.382760 9.980608 24.963352 54.290225 104.594831 191.542659
2025-07-06 0.537001 2.678503 8.670877 23.111823 52.585837 104.696625 196.906548
2025-07-13 0.439030 2.459040 8.480611 23.581546 55.261782 112.382872 214.992627
2025-07-20 0.366869 2.296590 8.399006 24.270028 58.400457 121.024577 235.028402
2025-07-27 0.313008 2.178497 8.410342 25.164238 62.003705 130.658501 257.121674
2025-08-03 0.257694 2.019515 8.267537 25.670923 64.847428 139.055332 277.430627
2025-08-10 0.197885 1.792854 7.863819 25.482887 66.222520 144.824416 293.421436
2025-08-17 0.139836 1.517422 7.223777 24.597140 66.023105 147.634980 304.327307
2025-08-24 0.103867 1.334285 6.832394 24.287355 67.022857 152.722144 319.423598
2025-08-31 0.068899 1.104861 6.195165 23.202839 66.185853 154.216763 328.106595
2025-09-07 0.057177 1.048832 6.197382 23.905857 69.461486 163.856817 351.903392